Jaewon Lim
Abstract: This study analyzes the recent trends of monthly visitors to the Las Vegas-ParadiseHenderson, NV metropolitan statistical area (MSA) for the first five months of 2020. In addition, six scenarios for the seven-month period of June through December 2020 estimate the net loss of visitors to Southern Nevada and the impact for the state economy in terms of employment, income, the total value added (contribution to Gross State Product), output sales, and state and local tax revenues. The counter-factual scenario – projecting the regional economy if no COVID-19 outbreak occurred – serves as a baseline scenario that allows measurement of the net economic losses from a significantly reduced number of visitors to Las Vegas due to the coronavirus pandemic. Finally, this study proposes three forecasted recovery paths for the tourism industry in Las Vegas, in terms of the number of predicted visitors for future years.