The local economy is not expected to improve in the next six months and little or no job creation in the state since the recession began in 2007 has impeded any chance for Southern Nevada to rebound, UNLV economists say. The loss of 21,000 construction jobs last year and 11,000 more the last six months, coupled with declines in gaming revenue and retail sales have resulted in a continued bleak picture for the region.
UNLV economists say much of the local economy's outlook is contingent upon the nation's recovery but say there is a moderate probability the U.S. will experience a double-dip recession that would further worsen Southern Nevada's economic debt.
At the CBER mid-year economic outlook conference Tuesday, CBER Interim Director Mary Riddel said the lack of job growth and slashing of budgets in both private and public sectors has resulted in Nevada having one of the highest unemployment rates (14 percent), an influx of housing foreclosures, a decrease in taxable sales (gaming revenue and retail sales) and a halt in construction projects. Tourism and gaming sectors remain flat even with slight upticks seen in February.
"History has shown that one way to get through a recession is to invest in projects that will spur job growth. This is the time to start creating policies around the economy," Riddel said. "Nevada will need to invest in areas capitalizing on Las Vegas's natural resources like solar and wind power, to attract people and businesses to Nevada again."
Among the economists' findings:
- For the remainder of 2010 and throughout 2011, Southern Nevada's unemployment rate is expected to increase, due to job losses within many industries including construction, gaming, tourism and the public sector.
- A combination of excess homes on the market and new foreclosure filings will result in low housing prices in Southern Nevada for the next three years.
- During the latter part of 2010, consumers will continue to have less disposable income for entertainment and travel, further disrupting meaningful gains in Las Vegas's tourism industry.
- Pending the nation's recovery, low hotel room rates are expected to boost visitors to Las Vegas and gaming revenues are expected to slowly increase in 2011.
- New casinos and hotel construction projects are not expected until 2015.
The CBER report recommends Nevada policymakers seek federal assistance in forms of small-stimulus packages, subsidies and payroll tax cuts that would attract employers to Nevada. The CBER stressed the importance of economic diversification by creating a larger educated workforce that is prepared to work in new industries, which capitalize on Las Vegas's natural resources - solar and wind power.
The CBER conference, held twice a year, forecasts economic trends for the U.S. and Southern Nevada. Data is compiled from state employment, gaming and tourism agencies to analyze local and national economic trends.
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